John Ransom | June 5, 2026
(The Lion) — A gap in union muscle maps directly to power for education reformers, according to an analysis by The Lion of a report from the Thomas B. Fordham Institute.
The Fordham study, released in May, scored all 50 states and the District of Columbia across 59 measures of union strength, including membership rates, political spending, bargaining rights and policy influence.
“The ecosystem of state education politics grows ever more crowded, with some new actors aligned with traditional union priorities but a seemingly larger number often working against them,” Fordham said.
When union strength is measured against test scores, the trend confirms what reformers have argued for years: The stronger the union, the harder it is to change anything.
Meanwhile, states with weak unions reformed aggressively and saw student test scores improve.
Florida, ranked 41st in union strength, pushed through massive reforms, including reading and science mandates, expanded school choice and third-grade retention for literacy.
“Thanks to minimal shifts in party control at the state level, in the nearly 18 years since [Gov. Jeb] Bush left office, there has been sustained gubernatorial involvement and a through line to policy in Florida’s education space,” the authors at the American Enterprise Institute said in an October 2024 study.
Florida ranks among the top 10 states as measured by National Center for Education Statistics report card data while ranking 43rd in per-pupil spending, according to Fordham.
Tennessee, ranked 49th by Fordham in union strength, rebuilt its teacher evaluation system and restructured low-performing schools.
Fordham noted that the key difference in Tennessee was that the state did not water down teacher evaluations but gave them real teeth.
“In Tennessee, by charging forward and implementing a teacher evaluation program that ‘counted’ right out of the gate, teacher support for the system grew each year,” a Fordham paper said.
The 2024 test results show Tennessee improved in fourth- and eighth-grade reading and math, climbing 10 or more spots, while ranking 44th in per-pupil spending.
In fourth-grade math, the state ranked 12th, up from 22nd in 2022 and 25th in 2019.
Mississippi, after a decade of reform that its teachers’ union was too weak to stop, climbed from last in the country to the middle of the pack in fourth-grade reading, according to NCES, while ranking 42nd in per-pupil spending, according to the Fordham findings.
Mississippi’s union strength ranked 47th in the study.
“Teacher union strength is strongly correlated with Democratic control and the presence of a minimum wage,” the report said.
The 15 strongest-union states, for example, voted Democratic in the 2024 presidential election by a ratio of 13-2.
The connection is also correlated with big budgets and mediocre results, according to the report.
Democratic-controlled Vermont ranked No. 1 in union strength and No. 1 in per-pupil spending, spending roughly double Florida’s figure.
Vermont spent $29,263.39 per student while ranking 36th in NCES scores.
Even Bill Maher has noticed the discrepancy.
“Mississippi is kicking our a– in education and for way less money,” the HBO comedian told his audience last week, according to Fox News.
Maher cited 2024 federal test data comparing California and Mississippi.
“We’re 37th in fourth-grade reading. They’re ninth.”
Massachusetts remains a cautionary tale.
Its union strength rank is third, and it posts the best raw test scores in the country, scores built on a 1993 accountability reform that included mandatory Massachusetts Comprehensive Assessment System testing as a graduation requirement.
But last November, the Massachusetts Teachers Association ran a ballot campaign to gut that requirement and won with 59% of the vote.
“Public high school students in Massachusetts can now earn their diplomas whether or not they pass their final MCAS exams,” local WBUR reported.
The state ranks 11th in per-pupil spending at $21,738.70.
The Fordham report found that 69% of education stakeholders no longer named the teachers’ union as the most influential group in their state’s education politics.
When asked to designate a number between 1 and 100 to describe union influence, the median respondent answered 25.
“State-level reform groups are now active in almost every state,” Fordham said. “Thus, when state lawmakers debate education policy legislation, unions are no longer necessarily the most informed or powerful organizations to show up, testify and lobby for their desired outcomes.”
And the correlation between union strength and resistance to change remains stark.
“Still, it is important to resist the temptation to view state education politics solely through the lens of teacher union power,” Fordham concluded. “Other actors matter, and in many states, they matter more. Our analysis suggests that the importance of these ‘other’ actors is growing.”
Reform is gaining influence precisely where unions are losing influence. The Fordham report tends to confirm that it is not a coincidence.
This article was made available to EdNews Virginia via The Lion, a publication of the Herzog Foundation.